No Saudi prolif---reputation and sanctions.

Disincentives. Saudi Arabia is expected to continually weigh these incentives to acquire advanced nuclear capabilities (which possibly include the ability to weaponize fissile material and deliver a nuclear weapon) against a considerable list of disincentives. For starters, Saudi Arabia would jeopardize its good standing in the international community, which it has established through signing several treaties and joining nonproliferation regimes. These include the NPT, IAEA, Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism, Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material (CPPNM), and 2005 amendment of the CPPNM. Following the discovery of a covert program, Saudi Arabia would risk severe United Nations and other countries’ sanctions. While economic in nature, the sanctions take on a security dimension because Saudi Arabia’s economy is predominantly reliant on its oil exports. They accounted for nearly 50 percent of gross domestic product and about 85 percent of export earnings in 2015.39 Its imported reactors would also likely remain dependent on the supply of low enriched uranium fuel. Therefore, a targeted sanctions regime focused on Saudi oil exports and imported nuclear fuel could cripple [devastate] its economy and hurt its security. On the other hand, the countries and organizations applying sanctions would have to weigh their own significant energy and security demands against concerns that Saudi Arabia could get advanced nuclear capabilities. Saudi Arabia’s contribution to the global oil market (which is roughly three times greater than that of Iran) grants it substantial leverage in determining global oil prices.40 As such, establishing a credible sanctions regime targeting Saudi oil would pose a difficult choice for the oil-dependent West. This will be particularly true if some in the international community become sympathetic to a Saudi desire to obtain a nuclear deterrent to balance Iran. The threat of potential sanctions would also carry great weight in Saudi Arabia’s nuclear weapons calculus as the government is facing its largest budget deficit in history. It is currently seeking to diversify its energy usage in order to sell more oil abroad rather than use it domestically at an expensive loss.41 If there is a decrease in revenue, the Saudis would be unable to spend as much money balancing Iranian influence in neighboring