Iran perceives normalization as a security threat – risks hypersonics deployment and Middle East conflict

As Saudi Arabia and Israel flirt with establishing diplomatic ties, Iran is watching with concern and determined to prevent a greater convergence of Persian Gulf Arabs and Israel. 

Current trends are the result of the transition of the world system from a U.S. hegemonic order to a great powers competition in which Washington focuses more on the rise of China and defeating Russia in Ukraine. Thus Washington has shifted from direct intervention in the Middle East to an  “” strategy in which U.S. regional allies are expected to play a greater role in securing the region. 

The U.S. now bills itself as a   coordinating among Gulf Cooperation Council members (GCC) and Israel, which has been  from U.S. European Command (EUCOM) to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) to facilitate closer cooperation with the Arabs regarding perceived threats from Iran and its partners.

In this context, the process of normalizing Israel’s relations with the Persian Gulf Arabs is meant to increase regional integration to the detriment of Iran. The establishment of a ‘’ — Middle East Air Defense or MEAD — is one goal of this convergence. Former Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid has dubbed this a ‘‘new regional architecture’’ whose main objective is to deter Iran and its proxy forces.

Not surprisingly, Iran considers  and especially a  as a threat. Formal Saudi diplomatic ties with Israel would be particularly alarming given Saudi Arabia’s key position in the region, the Arab world, and the Islamic world. It could endanger the Iran-led “axis of resistance” and impact the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as well as potentially boost internal threats to Iran from separatist and other opposition groups. 

Islamic Republic leaders see their security as depending on Iran’s  in the region. Thus, Tehran is also closely watching efforts by Saudi Arabia to repair its relations with countries such as Syria and Iraq that have been seen to be in Iran’s orbit, as well as the Palestinian group Hamas. 

So far, Saudi Arabia appears to remain ambivalent about joining the Abraham Accords, saying it will not normalize relations with Israel until there is progress toward a Palestinian state. Israeli Prime Minister  has said that normalization with Saudi Arabia is one of his main goals and the  that it considers Saudi-Israeli normalization a top priority. 

It should be noted that the normalization of Saudi relations with Israel would be a green light for other Arab and Islamic countries to follow, which also worries Iran.

Accordingly,  in part to blunt the progress of the convergence of the Arabs, especially Persian Gulf states, with Israel. Although Iran has accepted bilateral relations between the Persian Gulf countries and Israel, it considers any wider convergence or security cooperation as a very serious threat.

If a joint air defense system is formed among the regional states, Israel and the U.S., Iran will seek to compensate. One factor in Iran’s  that it had developed a new  that could defeat existing missile defenses was to show that it retains significant prowess in terms of missiles and drones. This sends a message to the countries of the region that normalizing relations with Israel and increasing convergence to the detriment of Iran cannot guarantee their security, and that the only way to do so is to cooperate with Iran. Accordingly, Tehran  that it is seeking to form its own regional alliance with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Oman.

Iran is also watching closely growing tensions between the U.A.E. and the U.S. Abu Dhabi announced on May 31 that it was suspending participation in a U.S.-led maritime alliance that is supposed to safeguard shipping in the Persian Gulf. The Emirati announcement reflected frustration with the U.S. failure to react to Iran’s seizure of two oil tankers, one of which was heading to Fujairah port from Dubai. The Biden administration responded belatedly to U.A.E. concerns by increasing the number of naval patrols.