MbS will secure tremendous concessions and a nuclear kingdom will start a regional war

Mitchell Plitnick is the president of ReThinking Foreign Policy. He is the co-author, with Marc Lamont Hill, of Except for Palestine: The Limits of Progressive Politics. Mitchell's previous positions include vice president at the Foundation for Middle East Peace, Director of the US Office of B'Tselem, and Co-Director of Jewish Voice for Peace. “Biden push for Saudi-Israeli normalization reflects misreading of domestic and international politics,” May 28, 2023 dmr

The most important question is how badly Biden is misreading the political map, and, therefore, how willing he is to accommodate MBS’ demands. A true military alliance between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, as MBS desires, is a pipe dream, but upgraded access to U.S. weapons is a real possibility. That would be dangerous, and a nuclear program in Saudi Arabia that could produce a weapon would surely spur a competition with Israel and Iran, regardless of the improvements in relations between them and the Saudis. Is Biden so deluded about the political significance of Israeli-Saudi normalization that he’d do such things? It’s hard to put it past him, given his horrific performance in the Middle East thus far. It makes far more sense for the United States to play a longer game, get MBS to reduce his military demands from Washington and, with a potential future Israeli government that might have some stake in finding some diplomatic steps with the Palestinians, supplant those demands with tangible gains for the Palestinians, such as ending the siege of Gaza. Such thinking is both much too long-range and far too thoughtful and clever for Biden. The more likely outcome is that the United States will fail to understand that Saudi normalization with Israel is one of the last levers they have to press Israel to recognize Palestinian rights, and Washington will instead squander it for some short term, perceived political gain that will further entrench Israeli apartheid, make the region more dangerous, and possibly even draw the U.S. right back into the middle of regional conflict. Par for the course for U.S. Middle East policy.