Would significantly drain the trust fund --- prefer detailed studies

(Dawn, Specialist in Income Security, Dawn Nuschler and Alison Siskin Domestic Social Policy Division, “Social Security Benefits for Noncitizens: Current Policy and Legislation,” pg online @ https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20050121_RL32004_2b5092caf9d7482be7998994c2c5b10d31f44afc.pdf //um-ef)

As mentioned previously, the SSA cost estimate shows that a totalization agreement with Mexico would have a negligible effect on the long-range actuarial balance of the Social Security trust funds. However, a sensitivity analysis performed by SSA at GAO’s request shows that a 25% or more increase in the number of initial new beneficiaries (i.e., 13,000 or more above the base estimate of 50,000) would result in a measurable impact on the long-range actuarial balance of the trust funds. GAO found that error rates in estimating the number of initial new beneficiaries under previous totalization agreements often exceeded 25%. Based on the large number of unauthorized workers from Mexico in the United States, GAO considers the estimated cost of a totalization agreement with Mexico more uncertain than cost estimates for previous agreements. In its report, GAO states that “a totalization agreement with Mexico is both qualitatively and quantitatively different than any other agreement signed to date.”47