Private accounts increase rate of return and helps low-earners --- prefer our studies

(Kevin Dayaratna, PhD, is Senior Statistician and Research Programmer in the Center for Data Analysis, of the Institute for Economic Freedom, at The Heritage Foundation. Rachel Greszler is Research Fellow in Economics, Budget, and Entitlements in the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies of the Institute for Economic Freedom. Patrick Tyrrell is Research Coordinator in the Center for International Trade and Economics of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy, at The Heritage Foundation, “Is Social Security Worth Its Cost?,” pg online @ https://www.heritage.org/budget-and-spending/report/social-security-worth-its-cost //um-ef)

Our results establish that personal investment accounts provide a significantly greater rate of return compared both to what Social Security can afford to pay as well as what it has promised to pay. Prior research comes to the same conclusion.20 Davis and Lacoude, What Social Security Will Pay. See, for example, Thomas A. Garrett and Russell M. Rhine, “Social Security Versus Private Retirement Accounts: A Historical Analysis,“ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Vol. 87 (March/April 2005), pp. 103–121, https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/05/03/part1/GarrettRhine.pdf (accessed September 30, 2016), and Michael Tanner, “Still a Better Deal: Private Investment vs. Social Security,“ CATO Institute Policy Analysis No. 692, February 13, 2012, http://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/still-better-deal-private-investment-vs-social-security (accessed October 4, 2016). 1. Higher Returns and Larger Retirement Incomes. Investment returns in the private market are two to three times the rate of return of U.S. Treasuries (what Social Security used to invest in when it ran surpluses). Consequently, even most low-income earners who get the most back from Social Security (relative to what they contribute) would end up with higher retirement incomes if they had personal investment accounts. This phenomenon was not always true in the past under Social Security’s unsustainable promises, but it is true for anyone in their 40s or younger today. For example, a 23-year-old female, born in 1995, living in Florida and earning the average wage can expect a monthly Social Security check of $1,393 in 2017 dollars when she retires at age 67 in 2062. However, if her payroll taxes had been invested half in large-cap stocks and half in Treasury bonds, based on historical averages she could buy an inflation-adjusting annuity (similar to Social Security) that would provide $2,524 per month in year 2017 dollars.21 The single female earner in Florida would have $709,461 saved at retirement in 2017 dollars. If she purchased an annuity paying her a monthly payout until death, which adjusts for CPI-U each year, it would pay her an estimated $2,524 in monthly income in 2017 dollars. Rate is based on ImmediateAnnuities.com annuity quotes in effect October 21, 2016, https://www.immediateannuities.com/ (accessed May 5, 2017). This amount represents almost twice the amount Social Security will be able to pay. The same is true for other earners. A 23-year-old male, born in 1995, living in Florida and earning only half the average wage throughout his working years would accumulate enough in a personal account to receive an annuity that would pay $3,093 per month in 2017 dollars. Social Security can only provide him significantly less at $1,551 per month.22 The single male earner in Florida would have $781,910 saved up at retirement in 2017 dollars. If he purchased an annuity paying him a monthly payout until death, which adjusts for CPI-U each year, it would pay him an estimated $3,093 in monthly income in 2017 dollars. Rate is based on ImmediateAnnuities.com annuity quotes in effect October 21, 2016, https://www.immediateannuities.com/ (accessed May 5, 2017). Even low-earning females (born in 1995) who tend to receive the most bang-for-the-buck from Social Security would receive 40 percent more from a personal account than from Social Security ($1,262 per month from a personal account vs. $902 from Social Security).