Saudi will say yes, but only with continued Biden focus

The likelihood is growing that by the end of 2023, if not sooner, Saudi Arabia will agree to normalize relations with Israel, paving the way for most Arab and Muslim relations to establish and strengthen ties with Israel. It won’t happen without US mediation and guarantees, which the Biden administration is now contemplating after almost three years of treating Saudi Arabia as a pariah nation. What factors contributed to America’s change of heart? What will the US, the Saudis, and Israel gain from normalization? And is this all win-win for Israel, or does it have anything to lose?

1. Reversing China’s Momentum

Saudi Arabia will not normalize relations with Israel without a major upgrade in US security guarantees, access to military equipment it doesn’t currently have, and assistance in building a peaceful nuclear energy program. After President Biden’s July 2022 visit to the desert kingdom to meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), the Saudis realized the US was dragging its feet, so the Saudis pivoted to China.

China can’t fulfill the Saudis’ wish list, but they performed a diplomatic feat the US couldn’t, brokering a Saudi rapprochement with Iran in March 2023, buying the Saudis a respite from ongoing Iranian threats. China’s diplomatic triumph provided one more glaring example of its ascending global power and America’s declining prestige. The Biden administration got the message, and within a month, dispatched four top officials to Riyadh, including National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and CIA director William Burns. In that sense, China’s diplomatic foray with the Saudis provided the US with keener insights into Saudi Arabia’s needs and goals and how Israel fits into that picture.