Gives rise to global authoritarianism.

Within Ukraine, those consequences would have been awful—show trials, summary executions, and all the mayhem visited upon the areas that Russia did manage to occupy. The global consequences would also have been ominous. Putin might have parlayed victory into his long-sought post-Soviet imperium. A puppet Ukraine might have been dragooned into a union state with Russia and Belarus; Moldova would have come under pressure once Moscow created a land bridge to Transnistria, a separatist region that already hosts a contingent of Russian troops. And following Russia’s successful intervention in Kazakhstan in January 2022, the de facto occupation of Belarus preceding the war, and a brutal beatdown of Ukraine, which former Soviet republics would have defied Moscow’s commands?

Perhaps the Baltic states, thanks to their alliance with Washington. But NATO would have faced insecurity up and down its eastern front. Through Belarus and Ukraine, Russia could have sought to intimidate Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. The costs and difficulties of defending U.S. allies would have multiplied along with the potential avenues for a Russian attack, as a Moscow-led union state would have a much longer border with NATO. Finland and Sweden probably still would have sought NATO membership, but the debate within the alliance over whether to admit them—and antagonize an emboldened Putin—might have been much more contentious.

The future of the authoritarian axis, by contrast, would have been bright. A Russian victory would have given the Moscow-Beijing partnership significant geopolitical momentum. An overstretched United States would have faced militarily ascendant rivals in both Europe and Asia. Successful aggression might still have triggered military spending hikes by scared democracies in Europe and Asia, but it would also have fostered an atmosphere of global disarray that favored predators and left democracies fighting back from a weaker position than they occupy today.

As for ideological consequences, Putin would have been strengthened at home; his popularity would have skyrocketed, as it did after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Admirers of autocracy around the world would have lauded Putin’s ruthlessness and cunning. The United States, fresh off its chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, would have faced still more claims that democracies were in retreat.