Russia-Chinese military coupling wrecks in the international order

Unlike the two scenarios above, a future of strengthened China-Russia military cooperation may have less to do with the way the Ukraine conflict plays out and more to do with China’s perception of threats in the Indo-Pacific. Such a future would see the United States and its allies increasingly united in their rhetoric and actions aimed at pressuring China over its declared interests in areas such as Taiwan, the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, and disputed islands in the South China Sea. China may find it beneficial to visibly strengthen its military ties with Russia if it believes the chances of an Indo-Pacific conflict are growing and that military cooperation with Russia could enhance its deterrence messaging against the U.S. and its allies.

Stronger China-Russia military ties could be manifested in:

Enhanced technical cooperation, to potentially include ongoing Chinese purchases of Russian arms and an expansion of joint development projects on platforms that incorporate key Russian technologies (e.g., submarines). Amid expanded cooperation in this area, China may seek to pressure Russia to reduce its arms sales to countries with which China has territorial disputes, such as India and Vietnam.

Expanded combined exercises that exhibit greater frequency, scale, and complexity. Combined exercises could continue to feature high-end warfighting topics like anti-submarine warfare and anti-surface warfare and potentially expand to joint exercises with multiple military services.

More targeted combined patrols, to include air and maritime patrols around Japan and possibly other U.S. allies — or the United States itself. Chinese military ships and aircraft have in recent years demonstrated capabilities to operate at increasingly distant ranges in the Pacific.

More frequent key leader exchanges, during which leaders articulate shared assessments of the security environment and determination to support each other’s interests. Related readouts would continue to affix blame on the U.S. and its allies for geostrategic instability from Eastern Europe through Asia.

At a time in which many of the world’s advanced economies are united in their opposition to Putin’s war, Russia would probably be the most enthusiastic party for strengthened military relations with China. An enhanced military relationship could include the expanded sale of Russian arms to ease some of the pain of Russia’s struggling economy, and it could also signal to the world — including the Russian people — that China remains supportive of Russia’s leadership. China would likely favor stronger military ties with Russia that more credibly deter the U.S. and its allies, accelerate China’s acquisition of key technologies that its defense industry cannot yet replicate, and heighten the realism of Chinese military training. A stronger China-Russia military relationship — to potentially reach the level of a formal alliance — is the worst of the three futures for the United States, as it would improve Beijing and Moscow’s capability of waging coordinated two-front coercion or even war in the future. Such a scenario would make the Pentagon’s “integrated deterrence” framework — the leveraging of all instruments of national power among the U.S. and its allies — more important than ever.