Dollar heg is effective and sustainable.

Will the Sino-Russian strategy succeed? My research suggests “dollar hegemony” is stable for many reasons, primarily due to the United States’ financial centrality and ability to secure investments. The measures announced so far, such as de-dollarization, renminbi digitalization, and alternative financial settlement and messaging systems, are unlikely to kick the dollar to the curb. But the reaction from America’s rivals underscores the limits of the dollar as a tool of deterrence.

It’s a high-stakes currency game

If China and Russia devise successful alternatives to the dollar-centered financial system, and if these alternatives gain significant international traction, we would be witnessing a cataclysmic moment in great power rivalry. Currency unipolarity has been a defining feature of the entire postwar era — no currency, not even the euro, has ever come close to rivaling the scale of U.S. dollar use around the world.

An end to America’s dollar primacy and status as a financial hub could mean an end to U.S. macroeconomic perks. And a declining role for the dollar could also undermine the practice of dollar deterrence — the U.S. government’s ability to threaten or deny foreigners access to dollar clearing and, therefore, dollar settlement.

This is not the first time countries have railed against dollar primacy. In the 1960s, French Finance Minister Giscard d’Estaing denounced the United States’ “exorbitant privilege” while economist Jacques Rueff decried the “monetary sin of the West.”

However, frustration with the system’s inequity pales in comparison with their ire over the discretion it gives the U.S. to exercise dollar deterrence. Should the U.S. lose this unique form of financial leverage, its ability to benefit from the current international order, and influence countries within it, will be sharply curtailed.

What is dollar deterrence?

U.S. dollar transactions are either cleared through the Federal Reserve or through U.S. financial institutions, which means foreigners depend on the U.S. financial infrastructure when settling dollar transactions. The United States’ ability to turn off the tap on foreign banks’ dollar funding can inflict significant costs on those who evade compliance with U.S. sanctions, given this extraterritorial reach.

Global dollar dependence provides the U.S. government with a powerful lever to police geopolitical behavior without intervening militarily. The U.S. has, for instance, sought to thwart Iran’s bid for regional hegemony, particularly its development of nuclear weapons and missile programs, not only by sanctioning Iran but by imposing secondary financial sanctions on countries dealing with Iran.

With significant U.S. dollar holdings, China is particularly vulnerable to dollar deterrence. If China cannot access dollars, this could jeopardize its Belt and Road Initiative, a cornerstone of Beijing’s global ambitions. The latest political rift involving dollar deterrence involves China’s alleged human rights abuses. In addition to targeting officials who allegedly suppressed democratization protests in Hong Kong, Washington is now targeting officials it has identified as participating in reported human rights abuses toward Muslim Uyghurs. The latest U.S. sanctions were announced shortly after Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s fraught meeting in Alaska with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on March 18.