AI development accelerating – AGI by 2045

(Gary Grossman is the senior VP of technology practice at Edelman and global lead of the Edelman AI Center of Excellence. https://venturebeat.com/ai/better-than-humans-ai-barrels-towards-agi/)

By these criteria, at least, ChatGPT is not AGI, and neither are DeepNash or Cicero. What they all have in common, however, is a clear advance in this direction. As Stuart Russell, professor of computer science at the University of California and a leading researcher in artificial intelligence, notes: “The actual date of arrival of general-purpose AI, you’re not going to be able to pinpoint; it isn’t just a single day. It’s also not the case that it’s all or nothing. The impact [of AI] is going to be increasing. So with every advance of AI, it significantly expands the range of tasks.” With each passing year, we can expect to see much greater capabilities on the march to AGI as these models become more sophisticated and new systems appear. Given the pace and scope of recent AI breakthroughs and the huge growth in the number of research papers, we can expect developments to come ever faster with profound implications for work and life. For example, within several years, ChatGPT or a similar system could become an app that resembles Samantha in the movie Her. ChatGPT already does some of what Samantha did: an AI that remembers prior conversations, develops insights based on those discussions, provides useful guidance and therapy and can do that simultaneously with thousands of users. Or imagine NATO using tools like DeepNash or Cicero with its members or in negotiations with rivals. We are witnessing a gathering momentum towards AGI, though experts’ estimate of its time of appearance is 2045. AGI or not, AI technology is becoming much more sophisticated and becoming deeply engrained in the fabric of our lives.