Economic inequality between countries creates global instability and conflict. Low-income countries also suffer from food insecurity – COVID and the Ukraine war make now uniquely key to prevent conflict.

Fragile and conflict-affected states, home to 1 billion people across more than 40 countries, are at particular risk in this era of economic uncertainty. After struggling with poverty, low-capacity institutions, governance challenges, violence, and other risks for decades, these countries must now contend with the scars of the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Accordingly, the international community must work together to help ensure their stability as a global public good—or else spillover effects associated with fragility and conflict become even more disruptive. The pandemic has had a lasting economic impact, with income per capita in fragile states projected not to recover to 2019 levels until 2024. Russia’s war in Ukraine and its related spillovers, including on food and energy prices, further aggravated the situation. Sub-Saharan Africa, home to about half of countries in the FCS category, has been hit particularly hard. Consumer prices have increased by more than 20 percent on average this year, while public debt is approaching 60 percent of gross domestic product—a level not seen since the early 2000s. We forecast that economic growth in seven countries—Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Comoros, Eritrea, Mali, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe—will be below the regional average of 3.6 percent this year. In addition, 123 million people, or 12 percent of the region’s population, face acute food insecurity, equivalent to two-thirds of the worldwide total. FCS in the Middle East and North Africa—more than one-third of the countries in the region—confront lingering effects from the pandemic and higher food and energy prices. Growth has remained sluggish at less than 1 percent, while per capita GDP continues to decline. Consumer prices are projected to rise by more than 30 percent on average this year and inflation will remain in double digits in 2023. Public debt as a share of GDP is forecast above 60 percent. As a result, FCS are facing very difficult trade-offs between rising spending needs, the difficulties in raising extra revenue, and elevated debt levels Vulnerable countries in the region also face food insecurity and social and political instability. Conflict has returned even to regions considered to be more stable. According to the United Nations, Russia’s war in Ukraine increased the number of forcibly displaced people to 100 million. The influx of almost 8 million Ukrainian refugees in neighboring European countries requires governments to cope with short-term fiscal costs amid already tight budget constraints, and make policy decisions about labor market integration and access to social services. These challenges are well-known in Africa and the Middle East, where policymakers contend with refugee flows and other regional impacts of fragility and conflict with few resources at hand. In this context, we should prioritize three ways to move these countries and their neighbors from fragility to stability and resilience.