Federal policy is key to prevent massive emigration – (emigration is the opposite of immigration)

The government of Puerto Rico is diverting its already limited near-term resources to relief efforts focused on saving lives and repairing critical infrastructure. Governor Rossello’s team has announced that it faces a liquidity crunch as soon as the end of October, prompting an additional request of $4.6 billion in immediate relief. And the impact of Maria on the economy for years to come is likely to be substantial. An analysis by Solomon Hsiang and Trevor Houser evaluates 1,300 major storms since 1950, and they estimate an expected drop in per capita GDP in Puerto Rico of 21 percent, a shockingly large number. There is no doubt that the Oversight Board and the Governor must revise the fiscal plan by reducing the economic projections, accounting for the near-term shift in resources, and revising downward the government’s expected revenues. In addition, that revised plan should reassess the wisdom of austerity measures in the face of dramatic and urgent critical needs, ensuring sufficient resources for ongoing disaster relief efforts while avoiding unnecessary harm to an already fragile economy. Three actions needed by the U.S. Government The risk of outmigration to Puerto Rico’s future prospects is profound. If hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans choose to leave rather than to rebuild, it will reduce the future potential recovery for the island, make it more difficult for the government of Puerto Rico to right the ship, and make it harder for those who choose to stay behind. Today, nearly all of Puerto Rico’s 1,300 schools are closed, leaving parents to decide whether to sacrifice as much as a full year of their child’s education or move to the mainland. A clear and immediate strategy is needed, and central to that strategy is the federal government taking the following three steps this year. 1. Announcing a sustained commitment to Puerto Rico’s future. A clear and public bipartisan commitment from Congress and the Administration to the long-term rebuilding effort is needed immediately. That commitment should include a commitment to a specific timeline for legislation and a framework around the types of federal support that will be provided, separate from the billions in near-term disaster relief being currently debated. This type of bold commitment is necessary to restoring hope to many currently considering whether or not to move, which would mitigate the risk of mass out-migration. If the devastation of Maria happened in Florida, there is little doubt that we would see such a bold commitment, but Puerto Rico is different. Americans living in Puerto Rico face different rules in many federal programs and laws and exert less political clout, being represented by the Commonwealth’s non-voting Resident Commissioner in the U.S. House of Representatives. In fact, a poll reported that only 54 percent of Americans recognized that people born in Puerto Rico are citizens. Uncertainty about the resolve of the federal government to provide ongoing support only increases the incentive for Puerto Rican families to leave. American Airlines announced that all tickets leaving San Juan are only $99.