there is scope to escape a recession --- labor market is tight --- housing is recovering

In particular, while there are signs the economy has slowed, the labor market still remains extremely tight by historical standards and the 

Some economists are now backing off their predictions of an imminent recession, the common result of a Fed tightening cycle and diminished economic growth. But there remain headwinds, notably less availability of credit and inflation that is eating into consumer pocketbooks.

“In this unique business cycle defined by unusual labor market characteristics, there is scope for hope that the US economy could escape a recession,” EY Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco wrote Wednesday morning.

“Indeed, unlike in prior downturns, business executives have proven reticent to dispose of the pool of talent they struggled to hire, train, and retain post-pandemic,” he added. “This labor hoarding phenomenon has so far translated into a limited drag on household income and, as a result, a gradual consumer spending slowdown rather than a retrenchment.”