China will see declining U.S. growth as weakness and become militarily aggressive
Dr. David A. Beitelman 18, PhD in Political Science from Dalhousie University, MA in American Studies from The University of Western Ontario, MA in Politics Science from The University of Western Ontario, B.A., Honors Specialization in Political Science, Major in American Studies, The University of Western Ontario, “Strategic Trust: Re-Thinking U.S.-China Military Relations”, Doctoral Dissertation, June 2018, https://dalspace.library.dal.ca/xmlui/handle/10222/74095
Efforts to mend the military relationship and insulate it from the occasional tensions that arose in the wider bilateral relationship were taking place at a time when the U.S. and most of the global economy were recovering from a serious financial crisis. This had two correlated results. The first is that the PRC “misinterpreted Obama administration efforts to increase cooperation as a sign of U.S. weakness and an opportunity to press Washington for concessions.”875 The economic downturn had simply reinforced a pre-existing belief on the part of many senior PRC policymakers that the United States was a declining power. As a result of this belief, beginning around 2009, China became more assertive “on a wide range of bilateral, regional, and global issues,” including on maritime and sovereignty claims in the South and East China Seas and in PLA interactions with U.S. military ships and aircraft conducting lawful routine operations within China’s EEZ.876