Decline causes dangerous multi-polarity and great power wars.

The second scenario is marked by low energy prices, weak economic growth, and global disharmony. The United States and the European Union falter because their macroeconomic policies never come to grips with unsustainable budget deficits caused by rising transfer payments in the face of declining working-age populations. Recurrent financial crises afflict the OECD countries and wreak havoc on the developing world. China is never able to establish the conditions of secure property rights, impartial rule of law, and transparent governance for modem economic growth. The result is high volatility and low-trend economic growth in the world's biggest economies, which drives down growth abroad and has a debilitating effect on geopolitical stability. Illiberal trade policies are ramped up everywhere, which slows growth further and breeds ill-will and mistrust among nations. Weak economic growth leads to low energy demand, which, when combined with new supplies of conventional and unconventional energy sources, leads to a sharp drop in energy prices. This is a tumultuous multipolar world. Oil producers in the Middle East resort to desperate policies to retain power, and Iran emerges as the regional power after a short but exceedingly violent regional war. After decades of economic decline and rising unrest, Russia experiences a revolution by disparate groups of aggrieved liberal parties. Asian countries form a new alliance to resist pressure from an aggressive China. Africa does not reap the expected rewards from oil production. Instead, poor governance leads to weak economic performance, and many African nations are mired in conflict over water resources and drought-induced famine. The international community fails to · adequately address the underlying problems.