A. GND Causes it

(Nicolas, Deputy Director of the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies and Herbert and Joyce Morgan fellow at The Heritage Foundation, , 2-25)

Direct Taxpayer Costs. Regardless, the Green New Deal proposes that the federal government largely pay for the transition, and this would come at significant cost to the taxpayer. Moreover, switching over to a 100 percent renewable electricity grid is only a fraction of the plan. Eliminating greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation, manufacturing, and agriculture sectors would substantially increase economic harm. Americans will pay as taxpayers for the government borrowing and taxing to finance the Green New Deal but will also devote more money to their energy bills. The reality is that the costs to families, businesses, and the economy would be considerably greater than any direct cost to taxpayers. An essential reason coal, natural gas, and nuclear power provide 83 percent of America’s electricity generation is because these resources are abundant, reliable, and affordable. A government-forced transition to 100 percent renewables or politically determined clean energy sources would cause electricity rates to skyrocket. In fact, 29 states, the District of Columbia, and 3 territories have a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), which mandates that a certain percentage of a given state’s electricity generation come from politically determined renewable sources. While a number of variables impact the price of electricity, RPSs are a factor in driving electricity bills higher.21 Research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in November 2018 has perhaps the most detailed model estimating the costs of deep decarbonization in the electricity sector.22 The authors run 912 scenarios looking at a wide range of uncertainties that take into account geographical differences in renewable potential, different technology cost assumptions, and different carbon-dioxide-emission-reduction targets. In some scenarios they include “firm” low-carbon power sources, such as nuclear power, natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and sequestration and high-capacity reservoirs for hydroelectric power. In the scenario that achieves zero carbon dioxide emissions in the power sector by using 100 percent renewable power, the study projects that average electricity prices would increase to $150 to $300 per megawatt hour.23 (In 2017, the average was $105 per megawatt hour.24) As calculated by Philip Rossetti at the American Action Forum, families would face electricity costs that are between 43 percent and 286 percent higher, resulting in households paying hundreds of dollars more in their monthly electricity bill.25 Regardless of what Green New Deal proponents ultimately accept as clean energy sources, the reality is that 63 percent of America’s electricity needs are met by coal and natural gas. Petroleum products account for 92 percent of the country’s transportation sector use. They make up such high percentages because they are abundant, reliable, and affordable. Significantly restricting their use would, in turn, significantly raise the costs of electricity bills and the price at the pump. Importantly, the policies proposed in the Green New Deal are highly regressive. More expensive energy adversely affects low-income households disproportionately because they spend a higher percentage of their budget on energy costs. Americans with after-tax incomes of less than $30,000 spend 23 percent of their budgets on energy, compared to just 7 percent for those earning more than $50,000, according to a report by the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity.26 According to the 2011 National Energy Assistance Survey, a poll of low-income families, 24 percent went without food for a day, and 37 percent decided to forego medical and dental coverage, in order to pay higher energy bills. Nearly one in five had a family member who became sick due to the home being too cold.27