Recruitment empirically declines with low unemployment
Philipps ’18 [Dave Philipps; National correspondent for The New York Times covering the military. He has been awarded the Pulitzer Prize twice, most recently in 2022.; 9-21-2018; "As Economy Roars, Army Falls Thousands Short of Recruiting Goals (Published 2018)"; New York Times; https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/us/army-recruiting-shortage.html; Accessed 6-25-2023; DQ]
COLORADO SPRINGS — The Army fell thousands of troops short of its recruiting goals this year, the first time it has done so since the height of the Iraq war 13 years ago. The shortfall is due in part to a hot job market that has lured away many recruits at a time that President Trump and Congress seek to expand the military, and have raised the number the Army needs to meet. The Army hoped to bring in about 76,500 new soldiers this year. But with the fiscal year ending this month, it is still 6,500 troops short, even after spending an extra $200 million on bonuses and lowering standards to let in more troops with conduct or health issues. On top of having to compete with a robust economy, with an unemployment rate below 4 percent, the Army must pick from what it says is a shrinking pool of eligible recruits. More than two-thirds of young adults do not qualify for military service because of poor physical fitness or other issues such as drug use, according to the Army. “You have fewer people who can serve, they have more opportunities in the job market, that makes it very hard on the Army,” said Beth Asch, a senior economist at the RAND Corporation who studies military recruiting.