A 10 percent decline in unemployment translates into a 4 percent decrease in military recruitment
Warner ’12 [John T. Warner; Professor Emeritus of Economics, Clemson University. Author at RAND; 2012; “The Effect of the Civilian Economy on Recruiting and Retention”; RAND Corporation; https://militarypay.defense.gov/Portals/3/Documents/Reports/SR05_Chapter_2.pdf; Accessed 6-30-2023; DQ]
Recruiting and retention are sensitive to the state of the economy. Studies indicate that a 10 percent decrease in the civilian unemployment rate will reduce high-quality enlisted recruiting by 2–4 percent. Retention also declines when unemployment decreases, but appears to be less sensitive to the state of the economy than recruiting. The recent economic downturn has improved recruiting and retention and has allowed the services to reduce use of enlistment and reenlistment bonuses. However, this improvement is expected to diminish as civilian economic conditions improve.