Transition wars inevitable in squo

“While the United States remains a global political, economic, and military giant, it no longer enjoys an unassailable position versus state competitors,” as aptly stated by a 2017 study published by the US Army War College. Concurrently, if left to its economic machinations, China will overtake the US in all spheres, including militarily. This is the capricious global abyss that the world is currently peering into – one which will eventually force a catastrophic US-China conflict that will change the established world order.

This is what billionaire Ray Dalio also explains in his meticulously researched book – abridged in this video. He states that all empires have a rise, a peak, and a decline (America being in the latter). The decline is marked by a financial burst and internal economic weakness which leads to more printing of money. It is also marked by internal strife between the rich and the poor as well as costly external fighting or both (sounds very familiar). This he says leads to a revolution in that superpower (usually of a violent nature) that aims to redistribute wealth.

This domestic chaos makes the empire weaker and susceptible to a new rising power, in this case, China. Eventually, a major conflict will ensue between China and the US which in its wake would establish a new great power and a new world order. This explains Mr. Dalio has happened with many empires throughout history including the Dutch and British – WWII being the latter’s last conflict as king.

The US recognizes that it could be yet another victim of history and great cycles. However, there is no perceivable way that it will ride peacefully into the sunset and let China or any other competing power fill the void. Perhaps this is a case of a self-fulfilling prophecy. “Something’s gotta give,” as they say. The recent budget request pushed by the Pentagon to Congress, amounting to a whopping $842 billion, is, according to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, “…driven by the seriousness of our strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China,”.

In simpler terms, the US perceives that a conflict with China or a China-Russia-led bloc is imminent. While the US is persistent in propagating that it is the Chinese that want war with the US, their own actions seem contrary to this. For example, the indignant and irresponsible decision to send Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan appeared to be an instigation – perhaps the US wanted its other archnemesis to be stuck in a war as well. This move has led to more Chinese naval ships and military drills near Taiwan and a greater chance for a direct showdown between Chinese and American war vessels.

Similarly, the world is one wrong move away from NATO including the US getting directly involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Finland has joined NATO while Putin has been threatening nuclear retaliation if the crisis escalates. This is why the famed Doomsday Clock is currently set at 90 seconds to midnight – the closest it has ever come to global catastrophe.

Final Thoughts

Sooner rather than later, the global powers will engage in a quest for supremacy. Whether this is WWIII or something else is uncertain but in my opinion, American hegemony will conclude. In fact, it is quite probable that while engaged in the aforementioned conflict, the current fault lines in American society rupture leading to internal conflict or a civil war.

Akin to how the Ottomans lost their territory after WWI, or how the British lost its colonies after WWII (both faced internal and external conflict simultaneously), the states within the United States will become bereft.