No impact - Barely any funds expire.

Figure 1 contains our estimate of the mandatory spending associated with programs that will expire on September 30, 2023. It may come as a surprise to many of our readers that only about 5% of the funding is actually facing the threat of expiration. Why? The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is what’s known as an appropriated entitlement. In other words, if the farm bill expires, the appropriators will continue to fund SNAP. Beyond that, crop insurance is permanently authorized by legislation outside of the farm bill. In addition, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) recently reauthorized spending for the major conservation programs. Further, annual appropriations bills have provided significant funding for ad hoc disaster programs over the past four years for programs such as WHIP, WHIP+, and ERP.

So – what does this information mean? It means that the impending expiration of the 2018 Farm Bill means very little for the vast majority (i.e., 95%) of the mandatory spending in the farm bill. It also means that unless policymakers are able to significantly enhance Title I commodity programs, this is little reason to go through the process that invariably will include damaging amendments to farm policy. While this still leaves a number of programs in limbo (particularly those without mandatory baseline spending), a simple extension of the 2018 Farm Bill would maintain the status quo.