Experts agree – only 6% believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is likely
Blanes et al. ‘4/13 [Irene Entringer García Blanes, Shauna N. Gillooly, Susan Peterson, Michael J. Tierney, Blanes is project manager for the Teaching, Research, and International Policy project at William & Mary. Gillooly is a postdoctoral fellow at the Global Research Institute at William & Mary. Peterson is the Wendy and Emery Reves professor of government and international relations and the chair of the Department of Government at William & Mary. Tierney is the George and Mary Hylton professor of international relations and director of the Global Research Institute at William & Mary. 4-13-2023, "Poll: What Is the Likelihood of War Over Taiwan?," Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/13/china-attack-taiwan-war-expert-poll-biden/, St. Mark's School of Texas, Ashrit Manduva '24]
The Teaching, Research, and International Policy (TRIP) Project at William & Mary’s Global Research Institute, with support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, surveys international relations (IR) scholars at U.S. colleges and universities on some of the most important foreign-policy issues facing the United States. The latest survey took place between October 2022 and this January, and the results reported below are based on answers from the 979 respondents who participated in the survey. (Complete results can be found here.)
Despite recent escalatory rhetoric and behavior, the survey’s respondents believe the chances of a Chinese attack on Taiwan or a war between the United States and China remain low. Furthermore, the experts’ estimates of the likelihood of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait have not increased much in the last year. Nonetheless, if China did attack Taiwan, IR scholars support a few strong U.S. policy responses, including sanctions, increased military supplies to Taiwan, cyberattacks against Chinese assets, and increased U.S. troop deployment to the region.
The surveyed IR scholars are far from sanguine about the state of international politics in general. They see a range of threats facing the United States, including climate change, China’s rising power, domestic political instability within the United States, and Russian efforts to claim former Soviet territory. But it’s clear that the experts think U.S. President Joe Biden is up to the task: Respondents gave Biden solid grades for his foreign-policy performance so far.
Will China invade Taiwan?
The IR experts largely disagree with the assessment that China is likely to invade Taiwan soon. Survey respondents received one of two questions about the chance that China would use military force against Taiwan in the next year. Half of respondents were given the option to select “Yes,” “No,” or “Don’t know.” Among respondents in this group, 72.5 percent said China would not use military force against Taiwan, 22 percent indicated that they didn’t know, and just 6 percent said that China would invade Taiwan in the next year.
These assessments have not changed much in the last year: In a March 2022 survey, 71 percent of respondents said China would not use military force against Taiwan, 22 percent indicated that they didn’t know, and 7 percent said that China would invade Taiwan in the next year.