Normalization is dependent on a two-state solution---which is impossible.

The biggest obstacle, perhaps, is that Saudi’s King Salman is acutely aware that the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative was conceived and proposed by his predecessor on the throne, then-crown prince Abdullah, his half-brother. The plan, endorsed on a number of occasions by the Arab League, advocates a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine dispute. Given the establishment of a sovereign Palestine on territories overrun by Israel during the Six-Day War, and a just resolution of the Palestinian refugee issue, the plan promises full normalization of relations between the Muslim world and Israel.

In September 2021 King Salman addressed the UN General Assembly. In his speech he reiterated Saudi Arabia’s commitment to the 2002 Plan, completely disregarding the fact that the one-time Arab consensus – no normalization with Israel before a Palestinian state – had been breached. Four Arab states had ignored it. A precedent had been set.

Yet Saudi Arabia has remained consistent. MBS and other Saudi spokespeople have recently repeated that normalization with Israel would not be possible until the Israel-Palestine situation is resolved or at least, in a phrase increasingly being used, “progress has been made” in resolving the dispute.

In a TV interview on January 19, Prince Faisal bin Farhan al Saud, Saudi’s foreign minister, once again repeated the traditional Saudi stance.

“We have said consistently that we believe normalization with Israel is something that is very much in the interest of the region,” he said.

“However, true normalization and true stability will only come through giving the Palestinians hope, through giving the Palestinians dignity. That requires giving the Palestinians a state, and that’s the priority.”

The same message emerged from the recent Arab League summit. A closing statement issued on May 19 reaffirmed that the Palestinian cause remains the central issue for Arab nations and a key factor for regional stability.

That must have disappointed Netanyahu, who had spoken by phone with MBS before the conference to discuss the possibility of normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. He and MBS spoke to each other again after the meeting, and the issue, still unresolved, remains on the table.

A major difficulty with the League’s position is in defining what precisely is “the Palestinian cause.”

For 20 years the Arab League, led by Saudi Arabia, has maintained that the two-state solution, as set out in the Arab Peace Initiative, must be a prerequisite for normalization with Israel. But what is rarely taken sufficiently into account is how the Palestinian leadership as a whole views the two-state solution.

IN THE world of Palestinian politics, paying lip-service to a two-state solution is understood to be only a tactic, a stepping stone. The true Palestinian cause, right across the political spectrum, is to gain control of the whole of Mandatory Palestine, “from the river to the sea.”

Moderates and extremists differ only on what tactics are acceptable to achieve the objective. Hamas rejects the very idea of a two-state solution. It came into being to destroy Israel.

The original Arab Peace Initiative, of course, was drafted well before Hamas gained control of Gaza in 2007.

The situation today is radically different from what it was in 2002. The Palestinian people are now split. The proportion supporting the Hamas agenda – perhaps up to half the Palestinian population both within and outside the Gaza Strip – would never subscribe to a two-state solution. Hamas regards Israel as interlopers on Palestinian land and aims to overthrow it.