Saudi prerequisites for a deal are highly unlikely to be reached.

In public, the Saudis continue to condition normalisation on the advancement of tangible steps towards an Israeli-Palestinian peace. “Israel has a lot of potential and normalisation can do wonders, not just for Israelis and Palestinians, but there’s potential for trade and cultural exchanges and exchanges with Israel on multiple fronts,” Fahad Nazer, spokesman for the Saudi Embassy in Washington said recently. “But for that to happen, for the kingdom to take that step, we need that core [Israeli-Palestinian] dispute to be resolved.”

The traditional obligations of Arab leadership common to the generation of MBS’s father King Salman conditioned Arab normalisation with Israel on peace with the Palestinians. The Abraham Accords broke that paradigm and proved that Israeli technology and advanced innovation were a more attractive prospect for the young Gulf elites, and it is thought that younger Saudi elite circles concur. Based on this reading, MBS’s programme of Saudi “modernisation” (a programme which critics are quick to point out does not include much in the way of an improvement in the Kingdom’s human rights) makes him unlikely to sacrifice a productive relationship on the altar of Palestinian solidarity. However, residual affinity to the Palestinian cause remains, and Saudi’s leadership status likely requires at least some Israeli gesture or declaration towards the Palestinians as part of a normalisation deal.

In any event, progress with the Palestinians remains a non-starter for the current Israeli coalition. The demand that normalisation be accompanied with concrete steps on the Palestinian front will be very difficult for Netanyahu to sell to a cabinet containing far-right cabinet members Smotrich and Ben Gvir. Similarly, a settlement freeze or public commitment to a Palestinian state along the ‘67 borders would seem highly unlikely.