Israel says no---internal coalition disagreement.
Ashley Perry 07/02, Ashley Perry is an advisor to the Middle East Forum’s Israel office. He served as adviser to Israel's minister of foreign affairs and deputy prime minister in 2009-15. He holds a BA from University College London and an MA from Reichman University, article published on 07/02/2023, while the youtube video it cites on 06/28/2023, Jewish News Syndicate, “Will Israel choose Judea and Samaria or Saudi normalization?” https://www.jns.org/video/will-israel-choose-judea-and-samaria-or-saudi-normalization/23/7/2/299438/, transcribed via AI, RMazhankou
But if we look at the rest of the government it it doesn't have the same appeal first of all you have the two ultra-orthodox parties the ultra-orthodox parties of course it wouldn't hurt them if there was peace with Saudi Arabia but it's certainly not something that animates them it's not certainly not something which animates their followers not something that's electorally interesting for them um so they really you know are not particularly interested in it and the two uh uh religious scientists parties the National Religious party and Ultima you did respectively um uh small church and being careers party for them um again I don't think they would be against it but the price advice that could be paid the you know freezing of settlements the stopping of uh new settlement housing starts uh perhaps taking a harder line against uh settlers who feel aggrieved about the fact that there are terrorist attacks happening regularly um these are what animates them far more uncertain what animates their base um you know these are hard-line politicians and you know settlers are very much their base so if it if there was a if there was a necessary quid pro quo um that Saudi normalization would come in exchange for something in Judea and Samaria uh they certainly choose Judean Samara over Saudi normalization so the Americans are very much banking on Netanyahu saying what you know meaning what he said at the beginning when he said he's the one with the hands on the steering wheel he's the one that's running the show and so this pressure is really directed at Netanyahu more than uh the other parts of his uh Coalition but he still needs to maintain a a stable Coalition and we've spoken before how it's almost impossible to bring down a coalition now the budget's been passed for a year and a half till the end of 2024 but we have seen the threat and it still remains that bengware perhaps even smart rich in the future could decide not to vote with the government could decide if Netanyahu takes a particular decision it doesn't like not to vote with the government and that could delay uh or even you know push off legislation that this government and especially Netanyahu or someone in the ruling party they could uh would like to push forward so while there's no real threat for bringing down this government um there are still there are still challenges and and problems that uh that Netanyahu could face so he's really trying to you know uh keep that line to try and satisfy the Americans um but also trying to pacify his more extremist elements uh within his government um netanyahua was very much in the headlines personally this week because there was a fascinating um uh new chapter to his ongoing legal uh issues where we had Anna Milton uh the famous Hollywood film producer it's ready film producer who actually gave testimony from a hotel in Brighton on the south of the UK I believe health reasons were suggested why he couldn't come to Israel to give testimony so it was given by video by Zoom or whatever it was and Sarah Netanyahu went as a proxy for her husband uh to sort of face uh Milton in this room where they set up this video conferencing what why this was important first of all because Milton is at the center of at least one of the cases against Netanyahu that Netanyahu accepted give some friends and then um did a worth hundreds I think it was hundreds of thousands of dollars cigars champagne jewelry etc etc and uh there was a quid pro quo to get better uh coverage to help Milton uh perhaps get an extended Visa perhaps to help Milton if he returned to Israel to pay less taxes there's all these accusations that are out there so everyone was watching the scenes uh this week of this sort of bizarre stage of the Court proceedings and what the prosecution are trying to show is that there was a quid pro quo or the defense that's in your defense laws we're trying to say is this was a real solid and a real friendship between Milton and Netanyahu the gifts were given uh out of friendship not because he expected anything from it interestingly enough there was a question well if this was a friendship was there ever ever anything given on the other way we're talking about hundreds of thousands of goods and presents given from Milton to the ever give a single gift to Milton and the answer was of course no um so it remains to be seen how conclusive or interesting or uh you know how much of an effector has on the case but certainly uh this came out uh uh this week comets which came out only today as well which also relating to the netting your case former police chief Ronnie alsafe uh came out in an interview and said that we in the police system expected Netanyahu to resign just as Alma had when he was indicted uh on criminal offenses uh and we never expected him to continue in fact we even expected the liquid to throw him out and one can imagine that this was jumped upon by um you know the Netanyahu surrounding figures ministers in the code even other men members of the government they said that you know it's clear by al-shek's comments which you know I I wouldn't say I are completely clear but I understand why the government uh ministers decided to jump on it they said well I'll Shake's comments uh basically say what we've always suspected that there was an attempt at a coup uh to try and overturn the will of the people and to try and get Netanyahu out by other means uh so it'll be interested to see how that plays out finally on the government reform it was very interesting um information uh released tonight sort of behind the scenes of what's going to happen with the government forum and it seems that there's going to be some major steps taken down uh from the ladder that was built at the beginning of the year with this new government what appears to be happening is that they're going to pass uh by the end of this uh session the summer session by the end of July a more diluted version of reasonable the reasonable nurse Clause as we spoke before there's two elements to that where there are law is reasonable or not or with an appointment was reasonable or not and as we know uh uh area Dairy that either the chef's party um was basically ordered to remove himself from the government um because it wasn't not reasonable that he would be a minister because it is uh past crimes and because of the plea bargain that he made that was going to be his route back in to get rid of that reasonable and explosive now appears that the reasonableness clause against appointments is not going to be part of the new law and it seems that Aria Dairy is almost accepted that he's not going to find his way back into the government and he's even appointed a new health Minister and perhaps interior minister to take uh the positions that she held so be interesting to see the most controversial part of the um the uh judicial reform was the override clause which basically meant that the uh knesset could re-legislate anything that the Supreme Court uh basically uh struck struck off uh and with a certain majority it was suggested a basic majority of 61 can override that Supreme Court um uh decision and one can imagine that's something the most controversial and that's certainly the ones that the um the U.S were most concerned about and other uh friends and allies around the world and it seems that that is now going to be taken completely off the table and some of the other more milder elements um are going to be um legislated uh later in the year in the after the uh summer holiday and the uh the Jewish holidays when they when the cancer returns in in October and there's a talk of that the composition of the judicial appointments committee is going to be very different the judges are going to be thrown off that committee and it's going to be uh five this is what's been suggested it's going to be former Justice Minister Friedman's uh compromise which is going to be five members of the Coalition five members of the opposition and so neither side have a veto and there'll be uh equal amounts it's unclear what happened if there's a tie but what it does show is that there'll be a need to negotiate and compromise between Coalition and opposition a far cry from giving the government uh the Coalition a complete pretty much veto which was being talked about from the beginning so quite quite a come down from some of the more extreme positions that were talked about in the judicial reform and while we are hearing that there's going to be new protests and you add a protest at the end of the day uh it seems that uh it's gonna you know the whole process is going to be much milder and much closer to what was being talked about by the two sides so uh lots of different things going on and with that I'm happy to answer any questions on these or any other issues all right thank you so much.