Oil markets are back to normal after the biggest discombobulation in world energy flows since WW2.

Prices have normalized since the shock of Russian troops marching on Kyiv last year lit up crude and natural gas markets. Dated Brent was assessed by Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, at $129.515/b on March 9, 2022, a day after US President Joe Biden signed an executive order banning imports of Russian oil, gas and coal. The benchmark was last assessed at $75.31/b on May 12.

A few months later, Dutch TTF month-ahead natural gas prices hit an all-time high Eur319.98/MWh in late August 2022, after Russia stopped the flow of gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. The pipeline and its twin Nord Stream 2 were later damaged by several suspicious undersea explosions. European gas prices are now back to Eur35/MWh and storage levels are at a healthy 62% of capacity.

TTF calendar spreads

Despite the imposition of sanctions on Russian commodities and price caps designed to restrain the Kremlin's capacity to wage war but keep its oil and gas flowing, markets have returned to something resembling normality. This has come after the biggest discombobulation in world energy flows seen since World War II. But everything could change on the outcome of the battle ahead.