China’s not looking for war – multiple warrants

[Percy, “Why China is not a threat: Sinophobia Unites Americans” John Menadue’s Public Policy Journal, Sep 29, 2023, https://johnmenadue.com/why-china-is-not-a-threat-sinophobia-unites-americans/ Accessed 7.19.24 GDI-HB]

Here are seven reasons – set out across a three part series – why China is not planning to conquer and occupy any other nation.

China has no imperial legacy

China does not have a modern history of being an imperial power. Unlike the USA (Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq) and Russia (Afghanistan, Georgia, and Ukraine) China has not occupied a foreign nation. It has land boundary disputes with India, Nepal, Bhutan, and Laos most of which go back to when it was ruled by emperors. Both China and Taiwan share the same maritime border disputes over unpopulated islands with Japan and claim similar rights over the South China Sea.

The World Arbitration Court found that under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea no country has sovereignty over these waters outside the 12 nautical miles from its coastline or has exclusive economic rights beyond 200 nautical miles. Neither China nor America accepts the jurisdiction of that Court. Besides China, Taiwan and Vietnam have undertaken reclamations in the South China Sea and the Philippines grounded a ship on an atoll to make claim to it.

Six countries lay claim to all or parts of the South China Sea (China, Taiwan, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam). China’s claim to controlling this ocean area is not new, but historic. China does not dispute the right of commercial vessels to sail through the South China Sea. It objects to the USA patrolling these waters when China does not patrol the seas off the West and East Coasts of the USA or the Caribbean.

China’s foreign policy is not ultra-nationalist

China’s long-standing foreign policy is expressed in its “Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence” which are “mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual non-aggression, non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence.”

The CCP has consistently suppressed ultra-nationalist sentiment given the country’s “century of humiliation” from other countries colonising it. China’s foreign relations pronouncements continually emphasise “peace, stability and cooperation” not war, turbulence, and conquest. In a speech marking the 50th anniversary of China’s return to the United Nations, President Xi said it would always be the “builder of world peace“, a “protector of international order” and “resolutely opposes all forms of hegemony and power politics, unilateralism and protectionism.” Xi called for greater global cooperation on issues such as regional conflicts, terrorism, climate change, cybersecurity, and biosecurity.

One can be cynical about such assurances, but if China wanted war, it would be demonising its adversary, not calling for an end to a “cold war mentality”.

Xi’s strongest statement is that “Western countries led by the U.S. have implemented comprehensive containment, encirclement and suppression against us, bringing unprecedented severe challenges to our country’s development.” This is a complaint, not a call to war. If President Xi and his Politburo wanted war, he would be belittling President Biden as Biden did to him by tagging him a “dictator”.

Those who want China to fail, overlook the risk of the CCP thereafter being displaced by an ultra-nationalist regime as happened in Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Neo-fascist parties like the pro-Putin “United Russia” seek national glory through foreign military adventures.

If that were to occur in China, Peter Dutton’s comparison to Imperial Japan would then become relevant. It is not in any way relevant now.

In the next article in this series, four more reasons why China is not a threat are explored. Including that China has no territorial ambitions; China is not exporting ideology; China’s obsession is secession; and that China’s focus is driven, above all, by economic concerns.