Global soft landing now – experts are cautiously optimistic

[7-6-2024, Pattaya Mail, “Soft landing for global economy predicted, diversified investment advised,” https://www.pattayamail.com/thailandnews/soft-landing-for-global-economy-predicted-diversified-investment-advised-464856, accessed 7-12-2024, CM]

KBank Private Banking, in partnership with Lombard Odier, hosted a seminar titled “Repositioning Portfolio to Embrace Rate Cuts,” analyzing the global economy for the second half of 2024.

They predict a high likelihood of a soft landing without entering a recession. Risk assets like equities are expected to increase, but investors should remain cautious due to ongoing risks such as prolonged high interest rates, geopolitical conflicts, and the upcoming U.S. elections.

Kattiya Indaravijaya, CEO of Kasikornbank, highlighted that 2024 is favorable for investments, with global equity markets continuing to deliver strong returns from 2023. The MSCI All Country World Index rose by 11.5% due to global economic recovery and robust corporate earnings across various industries such as technology and consumer goods. However, challenges remain, such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions and the potential impact of the U.S. presidential election on economic and political policies.

Homin Lee, Senior Asia Macro Strategist at Lombard Odier Singapore, noted that the U.S. market, particularly the tech and semiconductor sectors, remains strong. Despite a slower-than-expected interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve, there is an expectation of two rate cuts within the year. The cooling labor market, with slower wage growth and rising unemployment, should not significantly affect inflation, allowing for future rate cuts. The upcoming U.S. elections, with the possibility of Donald Trump returning to the presidency, could bring significant changes to labor markets, the economy, and international relations.