Harris wins now – stronger third-party base and voter demographic gets ahead of Trump

[Mark, 7/21/2024, NBC news, “How Kamala Harris fares against Trump in the 2024 polls”, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/kamala-harris-trump-2024-polls-biden-rcna162934, accessed 7/21/2024, LR]

Where Harris runs stronger — and weaker — than Biden

While the recent NBC News poll found Biden and Harris running 2 points behind Trump nationally, the survey found some important differences among demographic groups.

For one thing, Harris slightly outperformed Biden among Black voters, leading Trump among this demographic by 64 points (78% to 14%). That compares with Biden’s 57-point lead among Black voters (69%-12%).

On the other hand, the NBC News poll showed Trump doing slightly better among white voters when matched up with Harris instead of Biden, leading her by 16 points among these voters, compared with his 14-point advantage here against Biden.

Among other demographics — by age, by gender, among Latino voters — there was almost no difference between Biden or Harris.

Indeed, the biggest differences between Biden and Harris in the poll went well beyond demographics.

Among the roughly one-quarter of Republican registered voters in the poll who said they were unsatisfied with Trump as the GOP’s nominee, Trump ran ahead of Biden by 46 points, 63%-17%. But when Trump’s opponent was Harris, more of these dissatisfied GOP voters flocked to Trump. The Republican’s lead with that group grew to 57 points, 73%-16%.

Meanwhile, the voters who preferred a third-party candidate in the poll’s multicandidate ballot test seemed more open to Harris coming in as a fresh face in the 2024 race.

Trump and Biden were virtually tied with these third-party-interested voters in a head-to-head matchup. Trump took 32% and Biden took 31%, with a plurality declining to make a two-way choice, saying they were undecided, would pick another candidate, or something else.

But when Harris was the choice against Trump, more of those respondents made a pick in the two-way ballot test. The vice president went ahead of Trump among these “other” voters, 46% to 39%, suggesting a higher upside with voters currently considering a third-party candidate.