Harris is the Democrats’ best bet

[Christian Paz, Vox senior politics reporter, 7-21-24, Vox, “Does Kamala Harris give Democrats a better chance to win?,” https://www.vox.com/2024-elections/361750/biden-drop-out-harris-endorse-polls-against-trump-democrats-dnc, accessed: 7-21-24, ES]

Over the past weeks, amid speculation about Biden's future on the ticket, two debates have played out. The first big question is whether Harris will be President Joe Biden’s replacement, or if another Democratic politician, like Govs. Gretchen Whitmer (MI), Josh Shapiro (PA), or Gavin Newsom (CA) would do better. The other question circulating among pundits, pollsters, journalists, strategists, and regular folks is whether Harris would be a stronger presidential contender than Biden.

We can answer this question in a few ways: looking at data on her prospects, her recent performance on the campaign trail, and her past candidacies. Each of these paths give us limited answers, but to borrow a phrase from former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, we can still identify a few “known unknowns” that make the future a bit more divinable.

Coconut-pilled backers of a Kamala Harris presidential campaign argue that Harris runs about even or even better than Biden does against former President Donald Trump in polling; they point to Harris’s performance on the campaign trail so far, making the case against Trump and the American right’s plans in Project 2025; and at a base level, they argue that she has been tested on the national stage, while other alternative candidates have not.