Trump wins now – Biden dug a deep hole for Dems – public nostalgic for Trump era

[Liam, principal at Bracewell LLP and a former National Republican Senatorial Committee aide, 7-21-24, Politico Magazine, “15 Experts Predict What Biden’s Dropout Means for the 2024 Election”, , Accessed 7-21-24, AMH]

After three weeks of gazing into the political abyss, Democrats have cycled through the stages of grief, accepted the inherent risk of a presidential shake-up, and euphorically embraced a candidate they would have feared leading their ticket just a month ago. The swap leaves them with four months to climb out of the deep hole Biden dug over the past three and a half years.

The fundamental challenge for Harris is the same as it was for Biden: irrespective of age or acuity, American voters tell pollsters they remember the Trump era more fondly than the Biden years, and they believe that Trump’s policies helped them more than Biden’s have. So long as this is the case, victory will remain out of reach. Harris and her running mate will need to dispel the Trump nostalgia, camp out in battleground states, and contrast their vision for the next four years with the dark future they promise under Republican rule. The battle has already begun to define her among an ambivalent electorate, with Republicans seeking to reinforce a lightweight image while Democrats showcase a tough-minded prosecutor and foil to Trump.

For his part, Trump finds himself in the unfamiliar position of the front-runner. One hundred days out, the former president is on a winning trajectory, one that hasn’t wavered for the past nine months. For the first time in his political career, it is the other side that stands to benefit from injecting variance and uncertainty. That Trump is in this position at all is a testament to uncharacteristic discipline and poise, both by the candidate and the campaign; the White House vs. jailhouse dichotomy seems to have focused the mind. But Trump is a guerilla candidate at heart, and he must take care to avoid the many unforced errors imaginable against a history-making nominee.