C. Unpopular moves will send more votes Trump’s way

[Saurabh, 7-21-24, Politico Magazine, “15 Experts Predict What Biden’s Dropout Means for the 2024 Election”, , Accessed 7-21-24, AMH]

I never thought Joe Biden would step down, because everyone who could force him to do so from his staff to the DNC rules committee were heavily incentivized for him to stay at the top of the ticket. The one exception was the donors. It’s no coincidence that Biden’s resignation announcement came the day after FEC records showed a disastrous drop in donations to the Biden campaign, especially compared to President Trump’s.

Democratic donors have an interesting relationship with their own power. Many are uncomfortable with the influence they wield, but still wield it happily. Expect them to call for the Democratic Party to engage in some semblance of Democracy in the coming weeks — while still engineering the result that is most convenient. That result is Harris and an undefined white guy. Either there will be a pro forma contestation at the top of the ticket, or they’ll encourage a more democratic veepstakes to give the ticket more legitimacy.

That process will necessarily highlight the fractures in the Democratic coalition. Expect public fights over Israel and the future of the Dems’ domestic policy agenda. Every unpopular fight in public will send more support Trump-Vance’s way. During the next few weeks, the Trump campaign will iron out its plan to make Harris incompetent and off-putting to the electorate — and they’ll succeed. More importantly they’ll ask the critical question “what did Harris know and when?” when it comes to Biden’s health. There will still be a close election, but this kind of chaos this close to Election Day means Trump is going to win.