Harris win possible – similar polls to Biden makes her competitive with Trump

[Mark, 7/21/2024, NBC news, “How Kamala Harris fares against Trump in the 2024 polls”, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/kamala-harris-trump-2024-polls-biden-rcna162934, accessed 7/21/2024, LR]

With President Joe Biden exiting the 2024 presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris now becomes the overwhelming front-runner to be the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee.

Harris’ biggest challenge lies further ahead, though: She has been polling the same as Biden — or just slightly better — against Republican nominee Donald Trump, according to multiple surveys taken before Biden withdrew from the 2024 contest.

And Biden was running behind Trump in many national and battleground-state polls — which precipitated the president’s withdrawal.

In NBC News’ latest national poll, conducted more than a week after Biden’s dismal debate performance but before the assassination attempt on Trump, both the president and Harris trailed Trump by 2-point margins among registered voters, though the actual percentages for each candidate were slightly different. Trump led Biden 45%-43%, while he took 47% to Harris’ 45% in their matchup. Both ballot tests fell within the poll’s margin of error.

Similarly, a post-debate national Fox News poll found Trump ahead by 1 point against both Biden (Trump 49%, Biden 48%) and Harris (Trump 49%, Harris 48%) among registered voters.

But other polls have shown Harris slightly outperforming Biden by 1 or 2 points — though, critically, still trailing Trump at this point in some key matchups.

A national CBS News/YouGov poll of likely voters conducted after the assassination attempt found Trump leading Biden by 5 points among likely voters, 52% to 47%, while it showed Harris trailing by 3 points, 51% to 48%.

And in New York Times/Siena College battleground polls of Pennsylvania and Virginia, Harris performed 2 points better than Biden did among likely voters in these two states.

Importantly, all of these results are within each poll’s margin of error — and so is the difference between Biden’s and Harris’ numbers. Also important: It’s possible these numbers could change after the news of Biden’s exit from the 2024 race. But for the moment, Biden’s numbers and Harris’ numbers look quite similar.