Harris isn’t doing any better than Biden in polls – Trump will win regardless

[Christian Paz, Vox senior politics reporter, 7-21-24, Vox, “Does Kamala Harris give Democrats a better chance to win?,” https://www.vox.com/2024-elections/361750/biden-drop-out-harris-endorse-polls-against-trump-democrats-dnc, accessed: 7-21-24, ES]

What the data says: The major problem in comparing these Harris figures to Biden’s actual standing against Trump is that Biden’s numbers factor in every negative thing that he and his campaign have endured so far. Biden backers would point to the fact that opinions of Harris could still change for the worse as her theoretical campaign becomes not so theoretical anymore, and that her performing about as evenly as Biden against Trump is not that great of a sign when there is more uncertainty about how Harris would even campaign.

On that front, they point to the fact that Harris’s favorability numbers are not that different from Biden’s, and could still get worse. In recent polls, she performs worse than Biden in battleground states like Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada — losing those states would likely doom a Democratic candidate.

And she doesn’t necessarily do significantly better than Biden when looking at how subgroups of voters feel: She wins the same share of Black voters as Biden in head-to-head matchups with Trump in battleground states, per Split-Ticket.org’s polling, and does slightly worse than Biden among white voters, who still make up the majority of voters in swing states and nationally.