Deterrence prevents hot war between U.S. and China

The credible military deterrents that the United States and China both maintain against the other form the first source of stability. China’s relative power has risen dramatically in recent years, and the United States and others take as credible Chinese threats to use force in the Taiwan Strait if Taiwan were to cross any of Beijing’s red lines. Conversely, the U.S. credibility to provide defensive support to Taiwan and its allies has been strengthened through the development of the Quad and AUKUS, improved bilateral relations with countries around China’s periphery, and its support to Ukraine. Equally important, although there are “green” and “blue” wings in Taiwan’s political spectrum regarding their ideal preferences for cross-strait outcomes, in the context of realistic constraints, the vast majority of the population—and the political parties—are one or another shade of turquoise. In sum, the astronomical costs of an outbreak of hostilities have created a widely shared preference in favor of maintaining the status quo.