It’s too early to predict the election.

(Kevin, 3-4-2024, “Here’s why I’m still bullish on Biden,” https://jabberwocking.com/heres-why-im-still-bullish-on-biden/)

I remain unmoved by the liberal panic over Joe Biden's weak poll numbers. However, I keep getting asked why, so here it is:

• Right now the race is basically a tossup.

• But it's still very early. The vast majority of swing voters aren't paying attention yet—and won't until after the conventions.

• As voter attention shifts to the campaign it will hurt Trump. Historically, the more people hear from Trump, the less they like him.

• Trump has a lower ceiling than Biden. There are just too many people who flatly won't vote for him. Biden has more upside.

• Many of the people who say they won't vote for Biden will come around later in the year. As always, the prospect of a Republican winning—especially Trump—will overcome their early doubts.

• Biden hasn't even begun to campaign yet. He has a lot of money, and when the ads start running they'll hurt Trump a lot.

• Biden has an obvious problem with his physical condition, which reads as old. But his mental condition is fine. Trump, by contrast, shows signs of serious mental deterioration. This hasn't gotten a lot of attention yet, but it will.

• Trump has a big potential downside from all his trials. His MAGA fans might not care, but centrist voters do, and it could spell big problems if prosecutors are getting headlines for Trump's misdeeds when October rolls around.

So that's that. But I have two big worries. The first is that the economy might go south, though that's looking less and less likely all the time. The second is that although the race is a tossup nationally, it really does seem like Biden is weak in the battleground states that matter. I'm not sure how that will play out.