Even if conflict occurs, no escalation; leaders pick easy targets.
Clary 15, PhD, Assistant Professor of Political Science @ the U of Albany. (Christopher, 04/21/15, “Economic Stress and International Cooperation: Evidence from International Rivalries”, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Political Science Department, Research Paper No. 2015-8; pg. 19)
Setting aside the overall levels of empirical support, there is at least one other way to reconcile diversionary war with patterns of diversionary peace. It is possible that if diversionary war does occur it is less likely to occur between rivals. While rivalries have emotional salience because of the enduring conflict, they also involve states that have been unable to resolve the rivalry through military force, as evidenced by the rivalry’s continued existence. A war that a leader expects to lose is unlikely to be an attractive diversion from domestic woes.52 As Amy Oakes notes, many weak states are seeking at most a “diversionary spectacle,” by provoking controversy with a target “unlikely to fight back.”53 The median dyad in the international system is 71 percent more unequal in its distribution of capabilities than the median rival pair.54 Rivals, on average, are less attractive targets for opportunism than other states.