US DIB at risk of falling behind China and Russia- they are both scaling up investment and production

Regardless of the funding mechanism—whether replenishment for PDA or for USAI—this money flows into the United States’ DIB. This has direct, and substantial, impacts on what the DOD has identified as “prime vendors and critical suppliers in 37 states.” The map below demonstrates the massive influx of funds into the DIB since January 2022, shortly before the inception of the war, by identifying parts of the DIB relevant to restocking or future manufacturing for transfers to Ukraine. This map includes all contract funding for relevant systems and munitions, not just those destined for Ukraine, and thus shows the extent of the full demand signal bolstering the U.S. DIB. This map shows funding by congressional district, not to draw attention to specific members of Congress, but because this distinction is made in DOD contracting documents and allows for greater specificity than showing investment by state. As shown in the map, there are several districts that received substantial contract spending between 2022 and 2023, notably, in descending order, Texas-33, Arizona-3, Arizona-7, Michigan-10, Pennsylvania-10, Massacheusetts-6, Florida-10, Alabama-5, and Missouri-1. These specific states have received a significant influx of cash into their factories that not only provides jobs for Americans but also creates “opportunities for local suppliers, shops, restaurants and other businesses that support the factories rolling out weapons.” These benefits overflow to surrounding areas as workers will sometimes cross state borders, let alone congressional district lines, to meet the specialized workforce needs of these facilities. Analysis shows that the DIBs of China and Russia have significantly scaled up production and are on wartime footing. If the United States fails to respond to this strategic reality and fails to scale up and sustain production across a range of capabilities, it may find itself unable to deter and defend against the current threat environment for the first time in decades. A supplemental spending bill focused on providing Ukraine with the arms it needs to fend off Russia’s illegal aggression could start to move the needle in the right direction. As Congress considers another supplemental spending bill for Ukraine, this analysis reveals that this infusion of cash is just as valuable, if not more so, to U.S. readiness and deterrence as it is to sustaining Ukraine on the battlefield. Walking away from Ukraine will not only put NATO and the United States at risk but also undermine bipartisan efforts to make the necessary investments in the DIB creating further challenges for any future fight.