Military readiness deters nuclear strikes from Russia and China---extinction.
Pifer ’21 [Steven; January 22; Fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin; The Hill, “As defense spending comes under fire, don't make nuclear war more likely,” https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/535388-as-defense-spending-comes-under-fire-dont-make-nuclear-war-more]
During the Cold War, a Soviet “bolt from the blue” – a massive nuclear first strike aimed at destroying the bulk of U.S. strategic forces before they could launch – was a major driver of U.S. nuclear force planning. Today, the most likely scenario for a U.S. nuclear conflict with Russia (or China) begins with a regional conventional war. The fewer fighters, warships and tanks that the U.S. military has, the weaker its ability to deter that conventional conflict from breaking out.
Once conventional war with a nuclear-armed adversary begins, nuclear arms can come into play in two ways. In the first scenario, U.S. and allied forces begin to lose, and the president must face the agonizing choice of using nuclear weapons first. U.S. first use of nuclear arms would open a Pandora’s box of unpredictable and catastrophic consequences. The other side could well retaliate at the nuclear level, raising the possibility of an escalatory cycle leading to disaster.
During the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s, NATO had little confidence in its ability to defeat a Soviet and Warsaw Pact attack at the conventional level. It thus planned explicitly for to the nuclear level, but no one was comfortable with that prospect.
In the second scenario, U.S. and allied conventional forces hold out, and the other side attempts to upset the chessboard by escalating to the nuclear level. The president then would face the choice of whether to retaliate with nuclear weapons.
The best answer to these potential dilemmas is to have sufficiently robust conventional forces such that the adversary is dissuaded from attacking in the first place. Fortunately, conventional force balances today differ greatly from during the Cold War. NATO’s overall conventional military strength compares well with that of Russia, though the Russian military enjoys a in the Baltic Sea region. Russia is modernizing its conventional capabilities, so the United States and NATO need to ensure that they are not caught short, just as Washington and its Asian allies have to ensure that China does not out-pace them.