No Taiwan war.
Brown 23 [Michael Brown, Visiting Scholar at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and former Director of the Defense Innovation Unit at the U.S. DoD, 01-25-2023, Foreign Affairs, "Taiwan’s Urgent Task," https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/taiwan-urgent-task-new-strategy-to-keep-china-away HKR-MK]
Beijing already has reasons to avoid a new geopolitical crisis. After all, Xi is already contending with many challenges at home, including dramatically slower economic growth (in part due to Beijing’s failed “zero COVID” policies), an increasingly skeptical set of trading partners, and the biggest aging demographic crisis of any nation in history. And these leave aside the dire economic implications of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan: beyond the costs of a war, if China cannot get semiconductors from Taiwan, it would precipitate a collapse of the 70 percent of the world’s electronics that China produces and largely exports. If the United States and other countries lose access to semiconductors, a global depression will result. An unsuccessful effort to seize Taiwan, on top of these other challenges, might mean the end of Xi’s tenure in power and, possibly, the end of the Chinese Communist Party as the ruling regime.