Alt cause- lack of strategic minerals undermines DIB and warfighting capability with China

Gregory Wischer is principal at Dei Gratia Minerals, a critical minerals consultancy. He has written about critical mineral issues in Newsweek, RealClearMarkets, RealClearEnergy, National Defense Magazine, Washington Times, The National Interest, 19FortyFive, the Wilson Center’s New Security Beat, and the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s The Strategist. Jack Little is an independent critical minerals and rare earths analyst. He has been published in the Wall Street Journal and the Idaho State Journal THE U.S. GOVERNMENT SHOULD STOCKPILE MORE CRITICAL MINERALS; War On The Rocks; https://warontherocks.com/2023/09/the-u-s-government-should-stockpile-more-critical-minerals/

In a hypothetical conflict, the U.S. military would use platforms and munitions that contain substantial critical minerals. For example, in a 2013 report, the Department of Defense said that one Virginia-class submarine requires 9,200 pounds of rare earth elements and that one Aegis destroyer requires 5,200 pounds of rare earth elements. The attrition of these platforms, munitions, and the critical minerals that constitute them would require replenishment during a conflict. The duration and intensity of the hypothetical conflict should determine whether to prioritize replenishing platforms or munitions and thus which critical minerals to stockpile and to what extent. To illustrate, in a short, intense war, replenishing munitions will take priority as new platforms will not be built and fielded in time for combat; consequently, replenishing antimony in artillery and cruise missiles would be more important than replenishing rare earth elements in submarines and destroyers. The U.S. military would also have to replenish other technologies enabled by critical minerals, like gallium in semiconductors and lanthanum in night vision goggles. Despite the high attrition of platforms, munitions, and critical minerals in a potential U.S.-Chinese conflict, the value of materials in the National Defense Stockpile has fallen 98 percent from $42 billion in 1952 to $888 million in 2021. While the 1952 National Defense Stockpile likely prepared for a global nuclear conflict with the Soviet Union and the 2021 National Defense Stockpile likely prepares for a limited localized conflict with the Chinese military, the National Defense Stockpile today only requires 2 percent of the Cold War–era stockpile seems low, especially given limited non-Chinese mineral suppliers and high American mineral demand in a potential conflict. Furthermore, mineral stocks in the U.S. stockpile are far less than minerals in China’s strategic reserves. China has an estimated 7,000 metric tons of cobalt in its strategic reserves, while the U.S. National Defense Stockpile contains just over 300 metric tons — down from over 24,000 metric tons in 1990. Given its low mineral stocks, the National Defense Stockpile model may underestimate the duration and intensity of a U.S.-Chinese conflict, underestimating U.S. mineral demand, and it may also overestimate U.S. access to domestic and foreign minerals, overestimating U.S. mineral supply. The National Defense Stockpile model may underestimate the duration of a U.S.-Chinese conflict, thus underestimating the critical mineral stocks needed in the stockpile. Hal Brands and Michael Beckley of the American Enterprise Institute write, “The Pentagon and many defense planners appear to be focused on winning a short, localized conflict in the Taiwan Strait.” They warn, “If Washington doesn’t start preparing to wage, and then end, a protracted conflict now, it could face catastrophe once the shooting starts.” Similarly, a RAND report on a potential conflict cautions, “Underestimating the duration of conflict was a significant factor in most major strategic blunders of modern times.” John Culver, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, believes a possible conflict could last from years to decades, which would require immense volumes of critical minerals. The National Defense Stockpile model may also underestimate the rapid attrition of minerals in the war effort. As the Russo-Ukrainian War has shown, high-intensity conflict reduces stockpiles more quickly than they can be replenished. This mismatch is even more stark with minerals: downstream factories might be retrofitted in months or built in two years to accommodate demand, but upstream mines can take at least five years to produce, while metal refineries can take at least two years to build and at least one year to ramp up to capacity. If the National Defense Stockpile model assumes the hypothetical U.S.-Chinese conflict will be moderately intense or that mineral production can quickly come online, the National Defense Stockpile risks having too few minerals to support a high-intensity war effort.