Alt causes to inability for climate action – domestic politics, Chinese nationalism, and threat of Trump
Zhang 23 [Yuhan Zhang is a seasoned economist and adviser with over 15 years of research and professional experience in both the public and private sectors, specialising in China's economy, investment valuation and planning, political economics, and quantitative methods; “The death of US–China climate cooperation”, 14 January 2023; https://eastasiaforum.org/2023/01/14/the-death-of-us-china-climate-cooperation/] E.H
Second, domestic political barriers are likely to persist. Some interest groups in the United States may not firmly oppose stringent climate actions. But many will impede substantial policies that threaten their survival or harm their balance sheets. With President Xi Jinping securing his third term as China’s paramount leader, it is expected that Chinese climate policies will be consistent: Beijing will continue to prioritise economic growth and depend heavily on traditional energy-intensive industries. Third, great power competition will likely intensify. Although the United States and China may cooperate in certain fields — for instance, when Tesla operates plants in China or when US firms purchase Chinese solar panels — neither will sacrifice their national interests to substantially reduce emissions to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius in the foreseeable future. In the United States, former president Donald Trump has already announced a White House bid for 2024. If he becomes president again, Washington will probably quit multilateral climate agreements and escalate conflicts with China. In response to such US policies, Chinese policymakers, predominated by realpolitik, are unlikely to compromise. The fact that the United States and China are the world’s largest economies and emitters makes it galling to the international community when they refuse to take on serious commitments to substantially reduce emissions and control global warming. Years of failure to cooperate is a tragedy for the entire humankind. They blocked the world from getting on a carbon emissions reduction pathway capable of preventing severe climate change. Until we breakthroughs in clean technologies, the insulation of climate cooperation from domestic politics and the de-escalation of great power strategic competition, cooperation in substantial emissions reduction — and with it, the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal — is not feasible.