No transition wars---power transition theory is wrong.

Jelena Belic- lecturer in political theory at the Institute of Political Science, with a PhD in political philosophy from the Central European University (Budapest, Hungary); and Zoltan Miklosi, Critical Review of Interntaional and Political Philosophy, Vol 26, No.2, 181-203, “Cosmopolitanism and unipolarity : the theory of hegemonic transition” , ; [TMS—GK]

Given the meteoric rise of China, the emergence of other important powers, and major redistributions in the global balance of power, power transition theory (PTT) has become an important intellectual factor again. Many observers are anxious about China’s ascendance (and that of other powers) and expect serious conflict between Washington and Beijing in the years to come. Many of them ground their skeptical expectations in PTT or at least a much curtailed under- standing of it. To give just two examples, former US official Susan Shirk claims in her book about China that “history teaches us that rising powers are likely to provoke war,” and political scientist Christopher Layne echoes that “throughout the history of the modern international state system, ascending powers have always challenged the position of the dominant (hegemonic) power in the international system—and these challenges have usually culminated in war.”1 Such skepticism, however, is problematic for three rea- sons. First, it is false theoretically; PTT does not claim that all rising powers will resort to war or that all power transitions will result in war. While highlighting the inherent dangers of power transitions, PTT actually acknowledges that they might result in peace as well as in war. Satisfaction with the existing status quo is the key factor here. Second, it is false empirically; not all power transitions in history have resulted in great-power wars. Third, it leads to flawed policy advice; if rising powers are always aggressive and always challenge the international order, then it makes sense to attempt to contain or oppose them. If, however, rising powers are not always dissatisfied and do not always challenge the status quo, then policies meant to oppose them might breed dangerous dissatisfaction in the first place. Recognizing that even traditional PTT allows for “peaceful power transitions” as well as for “power transition wars” is a useful antidote against such self-defeating policy choices.