Biden wins now – BUT it’s close.
Dorn 6-18 [Sara Dorn, Forbes news reporter who covers politics. “Biden Vs. Trump 2024 Election Polls: Biden Leads In Latest Survey—As Trump Loses Support With Independents,” June 18, 2024. https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/06/18/biden-vs-trump-2024-election-polls-biden-leads-in-latest-survey-as-trump-loses-support-with-independents/]
TOPLINE President Joe Biden leads former President Donald Trump in a new survey that comes as polls show Trump’s conviction in Manhattan has dented his support among independents—a small, but potentially significant impact in a race that remains marginally close.
Biden is up one point over Trump in Morning Consult’s weekly survey for the second week in a row after previously trailing Trump for a month—the latest survey to show Trump’s lead has slipped in the wake of the verdict.
The two are tied in a PBS/Marist poll released Tuesday that found Trump has lost six points with independents compared to the groups’ May survey taken before his conviction, while Biden has gained eight points and now leads Trump by two points among independents.
Thirty-two percent of independents said they’re less likely to support Trump after he was convicted in Manhattan last month on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, according to a Politico/Ipsos poll released Monday, that found 33% of voters overall said they’re less likely to support Trump, including 9% of Republicans.
A June Times/Siena survey also found Trump’s lead has declined one point and Biden’s has increased one point among the same group of 2,000 voters polled in April and May, before Trump was convicted last month by a Manhattan jury, though Trump still leads Biden 47% to 46%, the survey found.