North Carolina cements a Biden win.

Research by BlueLabs has shown that there is an “estimated 0.4%-2.3% bump in top-of-ticket vote share when every local state legislative seat within a precinct is challenged.” As noted above, in the 2024 elections, North Carolina Democrats are contesting nearly all state legislative seats. According to Heather Williams, President of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, “The bottom of the ticket is absolutely driving engagement and will for all levels of the ballot.”

The other way that a down-ballot candidate can have a substantial effect on other races such as the presidential is for the candidate to be especially good or especially bad. In North Carolina, the Republican Party nominated a far-right candidate named Mark Robinson. The Republican gubernatorial nominee has a long history of incendiary comments. In Facebook posts that are still up today, Robinson has perpetuated racist, antisemitic, homophobic, and transphobic stereotypes. In some cases, his extremist viewpoints position him to the right of former President Donald Trump. Robinson has peddled conspiracy theories ranging from denying the Holocaust to entertaining the idea that the 1969 moon landing was fake. He has advocated for a complete abortion ban without exceptions, but now denies that he said this. As a result of his far-right views and inflammatory rhetoric, Robinson has struggled to garner support outside of his conservative evangelical base—alienating moderate voters and anti-Trump Republicans. Democrats hope that his extreme views on abortion will galvanize voters to go to the polls, resulting in a “reverse coattails” effect that will lift Biden to victory in the state.

It is no wonder that President Biden and Vice President Harris have been spending a lot of time in North Carolina lately. Although there are positive signs for the Democratic ticket, they still have challenges before them. In the recent North Carolina Democratic primary, almost 13% of people voted “No Preference” for president, tallying up to more than 88,000 votes. With Biden losing the state by 74,000 votes back in 2020, courting voters concerned about the crisis in Gaza—many of whom are young people and people of color—is critical. Nonetheless, a substantial amount of change has happened in North Carolina during the 21st century, which is why the 2024 battle for this swing state will be intense.