Trump wins now – newer 538 poll.
Plummer 6-17 [Kate Plummer, Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on U.S. politics and national affairs. “Donald Trump Now Favored To Beat Joe Biden in 538 Election Forecast,” June 17, 2024. https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-joe-biden-presidential-election-forecast-1913584]
Former President Donald Trump has edged a slim lead over President Joe Biden in a presidential election forecast.
The presumptive Republican presidential nominee is set to face incumbent Biden in November, and polls have so far shown that the results of the 2020 White House rematch will be tight, with the pair statistically tied or holding only marginal leads in a number of surveys.
But there are signs Trump is making gains ahead of polling day. According to a Sunday projection by polling aggregator 538, Trump wins 51 times out of 100 simulations while Biden wins 49 times out of 100.
This marks a change from April, when the 538 project launched. Then, it projected that Biden would win 58 times out of 100 and Trump would win 41 times out of 100. This lead continued until last week, when Biden was projected to win the race 53 times out of 100 to Trump's 47 times out of 100.