Economy is slowing – elevated inflation and interest rate risks now
The Conference Board Economic Forecast for the US Economy June 13, 2024 https://www.conference-board.org/research/us-forecast#:~:text=The%20US%20economy%20started%202024,Q2%20to%20Q3%202024%20period.
The US economy started 2024 on a softer note than anticipated as elevated inflation and interest rates continued to weigh on the economy. While we do not forecast a recession in 2024, we do expect consumer spending growth to cool further and for overall GDP growth to slow to under 1% over the Q2 to Q3 2024 period. Thereafter, inflation should gradually normalize to the Fed’s 2-percent target in 2025 as quarterly annualized GDP growth rises toward its potential of near 2%. Interest rates should fall starting in late 2024 but may stabilize at levels exceeding the pre-pandemic average.