Simulations agree Biden is the current favorite – these forecasts are best because they account for polling averages, demographics, and other key factors.

President is the favorite to defeat in the 2024 election, according to a forecast model. Polling and forecasting website 538, formerly FiveThirtyEight, said that when run through a , Biden won November's race 53 times out of 100, with Trump coming out on top 47 times out of 100. The simulation forecast explores likely election outcomes based on several factors, including adjusted polling averages, economic and political indicators, and demographic data.