Polls show Biden is just ahead in a very tight race

538 published their official forecast for the 2024 election on June 11, showing that Biden is currently just ahead in the close race. The model predicts that Biden has a 53-in-100 chance of winning the election, slightly more than half the model's simulations of how the election could unfold. Trump is not far behind with a 47-in-100 chance, suggesting the election could still go either way between now and November.