New surveys indicated Biden is gaining a lead over Trump – measures are good because they are re-contact surveys.

Just ahead of last week’s , I wrote that we were “, which may look very different than the predictions based on polling.” The first batch of post-verdict polls are in and, well, I must admit that a lot of things are looking very much the same, with the race between Trump and President Joe Biden still neck and neck. That’s not to say things are entirely the same. According to in June with Siena College, Biden gained on Trump by about 2 percentage points after the verdict. By itself, that’s not eyebrow-raising. The result is within the margin of error of most polls and tracks relatively closely with the tiny swing have detected. stands out because it was a recontact study; nearly 2,000 people who’d responded before the verdict were polled again. Moreover, the shift wasn’t evenly spread across the board. A look below the hood shows that there may be more to that 2% swing than initially meets the eye “The shift was especially pronounced among the young, nonwhite and disengaged Democratic-leaning voters who have propelled Mr. Trump to a lead in the early polls,” the Times noted. “Of the people who previously told us they had voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 but would vote for Mr. Trump in 2024, around one-quarter now said they would instead stick with Mr. Biden.” The demographics of the people who shifted means “it’s possible Mr. Biden gained a bit more than the two-point improvement among those we successfully recontacted,” Nate Cohn, the Times’ chief political analyst, Wednesday. “That’s because older, white and highly engaged voters were relatively likely to retake the survey, and those groups were much less likely to swing in the aftermath of the verdict.”