Biden will win – voter turnout and Trump’s conviction

Even as Trump has led in a majority of polls, there have been signs that the categories of voters most likely to turn out, notably college-educated voters, are leaning towards Biden, continuing an . As we get closer to November and pollsters begin to screen respondents for likelihood to vote, Biden could pull into a steady lead. Again, Trump’s criminal status might well solidify the disdain of some traditional Republican voters who are very likely to show up at the polls and rise up against the MAGA-fication of their party. If Biden can dispel perceptions he’s feeble or even senile during the , he could well re-build his winning coalition of 2020.